COVID-19 pandemic and the Philippine real estate property cycle: indications of bubble and burst in the “new normal”?

Abstract

The Philippines has been one of the countries greatly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. The country is regarded to be under the world's longest lockdown with an upsurge of cases, and it has also entered into an official recession with record-breaking economic contraction and high unemployment rates, fueling economic uncertainties. These macroeconomic indicators show serious signs of the adversities of the pandemic affecting the real estate development sector. As the real estate sector recalibrates its plans on response, recovery, and resiliency, this paper attempts to provide empirical evidence on the celebrated model in real estate economics proposed by Homer Hoyt and later developed by Glenn R. Mueller: the property cycle. We also provide contextualization on the property cycle empirics under the pandemic, given the sector’s reintroduction of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT). We argue that the REIT mainly supports the real estate development industry given the adversities of the pandemic and its accompanying recession, as well as an update to the long-term plans of the industry and its players in compliance with the “new normal”.