An Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Maize Production in Northern Mexico

Abstract

Maize yield is highly sensitive to climate change and extreme weather events. In some locations, it is projected to decrease due to an increase in the average growing season temperature. The present study analyzes changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the Comarca Lagunera located in Northern Mexico, using the ETCCDI indices. We examined a 40-year period (1980–2020) using daily and monthly climate data provided by the National Meteorological Service. The climate databases were subjected to quality control, homogenization, and data filling using Climatol, and the ETCCDI indices were obtained using RClimDex software. Results indicate that the climate variable that most influences climate change in Comarca Lagunera is temperature, with increases in both maximum and minimum values. This situation is accentuating the drought in the Comarca Lagunera, which is supported by the increase in temperature-based indices. Furthermore, precipitation is the primary variable influencing the yield of rainfed maize, while maximum temperature affects the yield of irrigated maize. These results indicate that irrigation is functioning as a climate change adaptation strategy, reducing the impact of extreme weather on maize productivity, which could have a negative impact on water productivity in the study region in the short term.