Preventing unnecessary imaging in patients suspect of coronary artery disease through machine learning of electronic health records

Abstract

Aims: With the ageing European population, the incidence of coronary artery disease (CAD) is expected to rise. This will likely result in an increased imaging use. Symptom recognition can be complicated, as symptoms caused by CAD can be atypical, particularly in women. Early CAD exclusion may help to optimize use of diagnostic resources and thus improve the sustainability of the healthcare system. To develop sex-stratified algorithms, trained on routinely available electronic health records (EHRs), raw electrocardiograms, and haematology data to exclude CAD in patients upfront. Methods and results: We trained XGBoost algorithms on data from patients from the Utrecht Patient-Oriented Database, who underwent coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA), and/or stress cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging, or stress single-photon emission computerized tomography (SPECT) in the UMC Utrecht. Outcomes were extracted from radiology reports. We aimed to maximize negative predictive value (NPV) to minimize the false negative risk with acceptable specificity. Of 6808 CCTA patients (31% female), 1029 females (48%) and 1908 males (45%) had no diagnosis of CAD. Of 3053 CMR/SPECT patients (45% female), 650 females (47%) and 881 males (48%) had no diagnosis of CAD. On the train and test set, the CCTA models achieved NPVs and specificities of 0.95 and 0.19 (females) and 0.96 and 0.09 (males). The CMR/SPECT models achieved NPVs and specificities of 0.75 and 0.041 (females) and 0.92 and 0.026 (males). Conclusion: Coronary artery disease can be excluded from EHRs with high NPV. Our study demonstrates new possibilities to reduce unnecessary imaging in women and men suspected of CAD.