Analysis of Observed Trends in Daily Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in Different Agroecologies of Gurage Zone, Southern Ethiopia

Abstract

Ethiopian climate-sensitive economy is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate-related extreme events. Thus, examining extreme daily precipitation and temperature in the context of climate change is a critical factor in advocating climate change adaptation at the local scales. Spatial changes of climate indices for extreme precipitation and temperatures were conducted for the period 1986-2016 in three different agroecologies of the Gurage zone, Southern Ethiopia. The study used the Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Sen's slope estimator to estimate the trend and magnitude of changes in precipitation and temperature. The analysis from the observation indicates that there had been a consistent warming trend and inconsistent changes in precipitation extremes in the study agroecologies. A statistically significant increase in the numbers of warm days and nights and a statistically significant reduction in the numbers of cold days and nights were observed in most of the agroecologies. The duration of extreme trend showed inconsistency; however, a drier condition is observed in lowland agroecology. Therefore, based on the findings of this study, appropriate climate adaptation efforts are needed at the local scale.