Prediction Concentration of PM2.5 in Surabaya Using Ordinary Kriging Method

Abstract

Air pollution is a common problem that occurs in big cities. The city of Surabaya, which is the second largest city, is vulnerable to air pollution problems. There are many indicators of air pollution, one of which is PM2.5. This pollutant has a size of less than 2.5 microns. PM2.5 can penetrate the lung barrier and enter the blood system. Chronic exposure to particles contributes to the risk of developing cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, as well as lung cancer. Because of this danger, researchers predict concentration of PM2.5 in Surabaya for example m the Rungkut Industri area. This area was chosen because in this area there are many factories that can increase PM2.5 levels 111 the air. The method used in this study is the ordinary knging method because the PM2.5 concentration in the air can be influenced by PM2.5 concentrations in the surrounding areas. From the analysis results, we obtained the Mean Absolute Prediction Error (MAPE) of 5.6% less than 10% so that the ordinary kriging method has high accuracy for predicting concentration of PM2.5 in Surabaya. Furthermore, prediction of PM2.5 concentration m industry area of Rungkut was 15.833 ngr/m2that is moderate air quality index category.