Key Environmental Drivers of Summer Phytoplankton Size Class Variability and Decadal Trends in the Northern East China Sea

Abstract

Phytoplankton size classes (PSC), which categorize phytoplankton into pico- (<2 µm), nano- (2–20 µm), and microphytoplankton (>20 µm), have been widely used to describe functional group responses to environmental variability. Distribution of PSCs heavily influences marine ecosystems and biogeochemical processes. Despite the importance of PSC distributions, especially in the face of climate change, long-term studies on PSC variability and its driving factors are lacking. This study aimed to identify the key environmental drivers affecting summer PSC variability in the northern East China Sea (NECS) by analyzing 27 years (1998–2024) of satellite-derived data. Statistical analyses using random forest and multiple linear regression models revealed that euphotic depth (Zeu) and suspended particulate matter (SPM) were the primary factors influencing PSC variation; deeper Zeu values favored smaller picophytoplankton, whereas higher SPM concentrations supported larger PSCs. Long-term trend analysis showed a clear shift toward increasing picophytoplankton contributions (+2.4% per year), with corresponding declines in nano- and microphytoplankton levels (2.2% and 0.4% annually, respectively). These long-term changes are hypothesized to result from a persistent decline in SPM concentrations, which modulate light attenuation and nutrient dynamics in the euphotic zone. Marine heat waves intensify these shifts by promoting picophytoplankton dominance through enhanced stratification and reduced nutrient availability. These findings underscore the need for continuous monitoring to inform ecosystem management and predict the impacts of climate change in the NECS.