A Study on the Impact of Fiscal Pressure on the Deviation of Local Government Budget Revenues

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of fiscal pressure on the degree of deviation from budgetary revenue based on provincial panel data from 2011 to 2020. The results show that fiscal pressure has a positive impact on the deviation of local government budget revenues, with the impact of fiscal pressure on the deviation of non-tax revenues significantly higher than that of tax revenues; the positive impact of fiscal pressure on the deviation of local government budget revenues is more obvious in regions with higher reliance on land finance; the proportion of tax revenues in fiscal revenues negatively moderates the impact of fiscal pressure on the deviation of local government budget revenues. The impact of fiscal pressure on the degree of deviation of local government budgetary revenue is negatively moderated by the share of tax revenue in fiscal revenue.