An analysis of Atlantic tropical cyclone forecast errors, 1970- 1979.

Abstract

Official Atlantic tropical cyclone track forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center over the decade of the 1970s are examined in this study. In this analysis, we consider 1) storms initially located in the easterlies and 2) storms initially in the westerlies. Latitude 24.5 degrees N approximately delimits the two zones. The mean forecast error (MFE) on group (1) storms is shown to be substantially less than group (2). However, it also is shown that 'skill', is greater for storms embedded in the westerlies.-from Authors