A Bayesian approach to parameter estimation and pooling in nonlinear flood event models

Abstract

A Bayesian procedure is presented for parameter estimation in nonlinear flood event models. We derive a pooling diagnostic using Bayes factors to identify when it is reasonable to pool model parameters across storm events. A case study involving a quasi-distributed, nonlinear flood event model and five watersheds in the southwest of Western Australia is presented to illustrate the capabilities and utility of the procedure. The results indicate that Markov chain Monte Carlo methods based on the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm are useful tools for parameter estimation. We find that pooling is not justified for the model and data at hand. This suggests that current practices in nonlinear flood event modeling may be in need of urgent review.