Modelled seasonal influenza mortality shows marked differences in risk by age, sex, ethnicity and socioeconomic position in New Zealand

Abstract

Objectives Influenza is responsible for a large number of deaths which can only be estimated using modelling methods. Such methods have rarely been applied to describe the major socio-demographic characteristics of this disease burden. Methods We used quasi Poisson regression models with weekly counts of deaths and isolates of influenza A, B and respiratory syncytial virus for the period 1994 to 2008. Results The estimated average mortality rate was 13.5 per 100,000 people which was 1.8% of all deaths in New Zealand. Influenza mortality differed markedly by age, sex, ethnicity and socioeconomic position. Relatively vulnerable groups were males aged 65–79 years (Rate ratio (RR) = 1.9, 95% CI: 1.9, 1.9 compared with females), Māori (RR = 3.6, 95% CI: 3.6, 3.7 compared with European/Others aged 65–79 years), Pacific (RR = 2.4, 95% CI: 2.4, 2.4 compared with European/Others aged 65–79 years) and those living in the most deprived areas (RR = 1.8, 95% CI: 1.3, 2.4) for New Zealand Deprivation (NZDep) 9&10 (the most deprived) compared with NZDep 1&2 (the least deprived). Conclusions These results support targeting influenza vaccination and other interventions to the most vulnerable groups, in particular Māori and Pacific people and men aged 65–79 years and those living in the most deprived areas.