Classification of GLM Flashes Using Random Forests

Abstract

[The Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) detects total lightning continuously from space, and does not distinguish intra-cloud (IC) from cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning. This research focuses on differentiating CG and IC lightning detected by GLM using a random forests (RF) model. GLM flash and group characteristics are implemented into the RF model and used to predict flash type. The most important flash characteristic for distinguishing flash type is the maximum group area. Other features with high feature importance include time-of-day, elongation, propagation, footprint, slope, maximum distance between groups and events, and mean energy. Skill scores showcase the model's ability to distinguish flash type with moderate skill, with 81% probability of detection, 71% percent correct, 36% false alarm rate, 36% false alarm ratio, and 56% critical success index. These scores improve further when study area is limited to CONUS and the Southeastern United States. These results can be used to aid in future climatological analysis of flash type.].