Interim monitoring for non-inferiority trials: Minimizing patient exposure to inferior therapies

Abstract

The goal of a non-inferiority randomized trial is to demonstrate that an experimental treatment is not unacceptably worse than a standard treatment. The experimental treatment is known to have less toxicity or other quality-of-life benefits when compared with the standard treatment, so that a small decrement in efficacy would be acceptable. Interim monitoring of randomized trials is used to stop trials early if the conclusions of the trial become definitive early. In the context of a non-inferiority trial, of special interest is stopping a trial early when the experimental treatment is inferior to the standard treatment. Methods for performing interim monitoring of non-inferiority trials are reviewed for their ability to minimize patient exposure to inferior experimental treatments. Examples of trials from the literature are discussed along with a computer simulation of a simple non-inferiority monitoring rule. Interim monitoring for non-inferiority trials is shown to substantially reduce the exposure of patients to inferior therapies when, in fact, the experimental treatment is inferior to the standard treatment. Interim monitoring rules typically used in superiority trials may be sub-optimal for non-inferiority trials, and may unnecessarily expose patients to inferior therapies. Examples of trials with inferior experimental arms and trials with sub-optimal monitoring rules are given. Appropriate interim monitoring of non-inferiority trials can reduce the exposure of patients to inferior therapies when the experimental treatment is inferior to the standard treatment.