Systematic mischaracterization of exoplanetary system dynamical histories from a model degeneracy near mean-motion resonance

Abstract

There is a degeneracy in the radial velocity exoplanet signal between a single planet on an eccentric orbit and a two-planet system with a period ratio of 2:1. This degeneracy could lead to misunderstandings of the dynamical histories of planetary systems as well as measurements of planetary abundances if the correct architecture is not established. We constrain the rate of mischaracterization by analysing a sample of 60 non-transiting, radial velocity systems orbiting main-sequence stars from the NASA Exoplanet Archive (NASA Archive) using a new Bayesian model comparison pipeline. We find that 15 systems (25 per cent of our sample) show compelling evidence for the two-planet case with a confidence level of 95 per cent.