Prognostic value of Modified Early Warning Score generated in a Chinese emergency department: A prospective cohort study

Abstract

Objectives: This study aimed to validate the performance of the Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) in a Chinese emergency department and to determine the best cut-off value for in-hospital mortality prediction. Design: A prospective, single-centred observational cohort study. Setting: This study was conducted at a tertiary hospital in South China. Participants: A total of 383 patients aged 18 years or older who presented to the emergency department from 17 May 2017 through 27 September 2017, triaged as category 1, 2 or 3, were enrolled. Outcomes: The primary outcome was a composite of in-hospital mortality and admission to the intensive care unit. The secondary outcome was using MEWS to predict hospitalised and discharged patients. Results: A total of 383 patients were included in this study. In-hospital mortality was 13.6% (52/383), and transfer to the intensive care unit was 21.7% (83/383). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of MEWS for in-hospital mortality prediction was 0.83 (95% CI 0.786 to 0.881). When predicting in-hospital mortality with the cut-off point defined as 3.5, 158 patients had MEWS >3.5, with a specificity of 66%, a sensitivity of 87%, an accuracy of 69%, a positive predictive value of 28% and a negative predictive value of 97%, respectively. Conclusion Our findings support the use of MEWS for in-hospital mortality prediction in patients who were triaged category 1, 2 or 3 in a Chinese emergency department. The cut-off value for in-hospital mortality prediction defined in this study was different from that seen in many other studies.