Incremental Value of Radiomics in 5-Year Overall Survival Prediction for Stage II–III Rectal Cancer

Abstract

Although rectal cancer comprises up to one-third of colorectal cancer cases and several prognosis nomograms have been established for colon cancer, statistical tools for predicting long-term survival in rectal cancer are lacking. In addition, previous prognostic studies did not include much imaging findings, qualitatively or quantitatively. Therefore, we include multiparametric MRI information from both radiologists’ readings and quantitative radiomics signatures to construct a prognostic model that allows 5-year overall survival (OS) prediction for advance-staged rectal cancer patients. The result suggested that the model combined with quantitative imaging findings might outperform that of conventional TNM staging or other clinical prognostic factors. It was noteworthy that the identified radiomics signature consisted of three from dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE)-MRI, four from anatomical MRI, and one from functional diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI). This highlighted the importance of multiparametric MRI to address the issue of long-term survival estimation in rectal cancer. Additionally, the constructed radiomics signature demonstrated value to the conventional prognostic factors in predicting 5-year OS for stage II–III rectal cancer. The presented nomogram also provides a practical example of individualized prognosis estimation and may potentially impact treatment strategies.