Constructing social futures for climate-change impacts and response studies: Building qualitative and quantitative scenarios with the participation of stakeholders

Abstract

This paper describes the development of socio-economic scenarios, in both qualitative and quantitative terms, for use in integrated assessment modelling of the impacts of climate change in 2 contrasting English regions: East Anglia and the North West. The need for socio-economic scenarios is discussed, and the 'mediating' role that they play between intellectual debate and policy deliberation is analysed. Four scenarios are constructed for each region: regional enterprise, global sustainability, regional stewardship and global markets, and we provide the rationale for the socioeconomic and policy changes we propose under each scenario. Spatial mapping of 2 of the scenarios in each region is then conducted for 3 illustrative issues (built development, biodiversity and coastal zone), and a sample of non-spatial agricultural variables is inferred. A major focus of the paper is an examination of the experience of engaging stakeholders in the development of the socio-economic scenarios. We explore, in particular, how stakeholders reconciled a given long-term scenario framework with their shorter-term and particular policy-driven requirements.