Analysing the South African table grape industry within a partial equilibrium framework

Abstract

This paper presents a partial equilibrium model for the South African table grape industry, focussing on the fresh market segments. The model is a dynamic recursive model solving various equations simultaneously reaching a state of equilibrium once total production equals total demand and equilibrium is established in the export- and domestic market for fresh grapes. Results over the next eight years are presented in the form of a baseline outlook and two "what if" questions. Answering these questions quantifies the sensitivity of the export price to changes in demand and supply. The model is housed and maintained in the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy at the Western Cape Department of Agriculture and Universities of Pretoria and Stellenbosch.