Demographic processes and household dynamics: A microsimulation approach

Abstract

This chapter addresses the problem of modeling household dynamics and producing regional forecasts of the number of different types of households over medium-term time spans (5-10 years) using microsimulation methods. The processes that form, change and dissolve households are complex and often interdependent. It is devoted to a discussion of how to generate samples of individual and household data synthetically from published information, and an application for Yorkshire and Humberside is given. The chapter includes a brief survey of the existing literature on the application of microsimulation methods for addressing the problem of modeling household dynamics. The main similarities, differences and data requirements of a microsimulation approach compared with the more traditional headship rate analysis method of producing household forecasts are outlined in the chapter. Recently the use of the minimum information principle in household forecasting has attracted some attention by Swedish researchers.