Fatality rates implied by the Italian building code

Abstract

The project Rischio Implicito – Norme Tecniche per le Costruzioni (RINTC) assessed the seismic structural reliability, in terms of the annual rate of earthquakes causing failure, of a large set of code-conforming buildings, designed to be located in three different sites, representative of low, mid, and high seismic hazard in Italy. It was found that seismic reliability tends to decrease significantly as the site's hazard increases, despite the design actions having the same return period at all sites. Because this is a consequence of the code's approach, the simple study presented in this paper aims to contribute to the discussion on whether the code-implied safety is yet acceptable. To this end, the annual fatality rates due to the seismic failure of the buildings from the mentioned project are computed, in a simplified manner, and compared with the annual risk from other common causes of death in Italy; the latter obtained based on data from the Italian Statistical Institute. The results, although subjected to the conventionality of the working assumptions, seem to indicate that seismic fatality risk is generally lower than that of other causes of death, by one or more orders of magnitude at the lower hazard sites. This can contribute to the discussion on seismic structural safety due to the characteristics of the Italian code that are common to state-of-the-art codes internationally.