Why is the Silk Road Economic Belt not a New Strategy? A Three-Factor Analysis in the Context of Central Asia

Abstract

The current scholarly discussion concerning the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) seeks to connect the investment activities on the ground with its strategic objectives, and attributes their mismatch to subnational factors or third-party interventions. Few scholars question the fundamental conceptualization of the BRI as a new grand strategy. First, this paper argues that China has not dictated the Central Asian development agenda, nor has it demonstrated a strong capability for institutional innovation. It then adopts the foreign policy analysis approach to trace the regional, international, and domestic factors shaping the content of the BRI. In particular, this paper finds out that the BRI reveals Beijing's strong consistency in economy-driven diplomacy while recalculating the interests and risks of participation in economic globalization. The BRI should not be interpreted as a new concrete strategy to challenge the existing world order.