Individual differences in the susceptibility to forecasting biases

Abstract

We set out to investigate whether interindividual differences in cognition affect the susceptibility to four forecasting biases: (a) optimism bias, (b) adding noise to forecasts, (c) presuming positive autocorrelation when series are independent, and (d) trend damping. All four biases were prevalent in the results, but we found no consistent relationships with cognition (cognitive style, cognitive reflection). Our sample included both novice and expert forecasters. They did not differ significantly in their susceptibility to biases. The lack of individual differences in bias susceptibility suggests that universal approaches to debiasing are possible.