Investment valuation model of public rental housing PPP project for private sector: A real option perspective

Abstract

Public rental housing (PRH) in China is mainly invested by the government at present. The huge capital demand brings it great pressure and a series of problems appear meanwhile. Public-private partnership (PPP) has been regarded as a way to solve the funding dilemma of PRH. However, the PRH project is not attractive for the private sector since the expected profit seems unsatisfactory based on traditional valuation methods. To improve this situation, this paper proposed an investment valuation model from a real option perspective. For the private sector, three types of options, including deferral option, abandonment option, and expansion option, were identified during the concession period of a PRH PPP project. On this basis, a two-stage binomial tree model was constructed for estimating the investment value. Then, the proposed model was tested in a hypothetical example of a typical PRH PPP project in Chongqing, China. The result shows that great potential value can be excavated through flexible strategies and adaption to uncertainties. This paper provides a deep analysis on the gaps of the real option application in public housing investment assessment, which is meaningful for improving the supply efficiency and financial sustainability of PRH.