Creating value under uncertainty

Abstract

Two disciplines - decision analysis (sometimes called value analysis) and scenario planning - provide a level of rigor to the task of looking into the future. Both combine information available in the present with explicit assumptions, interpretations, and consequences. Decision analysis models consequences of actions, identifying where uncertainty divides single events into multiple options, each having some likelihood of occurrence. Scenario planning is a form of science fiction writing that gives a gestalt view of the future evolved from the present under a model of how environment, technology, economics, and politics may change. Scenario planning is used to produce stories that identify patterns of behavior. Decision analysis applies mathematics to quantify sequences of choices, such as cost tradeoffs, and to compute the future value of assets created by following any particular sequence. Why are these disciplines of interest in software engineering? First, they offer tools for modeling assumptions and expectations. They provide ways to construct plans in situations dominated by uncertainty. Second, they provide a framework for anticipating the consequence of selecting a next step. And third is that they offer techniques for designing collaborative technologies to support project planning. These same techniques are currently being used to design online support for secondary school teacher professional development and for drug development programs.