A Time Step Energy Process Model for Germany - Model Structure and Results

Abstract

The new IKARUS-Model is a time-step dynamical bottom-up linear optimization model where each time interval is optimized by itself using the heritage from all periods before. Contrary to perfect-foresight models, this model does not take into account future changes in each time-step optimization. It therefore shows a more realistic character of prognosis and projection. Aspects like reaction on sudden changes (e.g. of energy prices), flexibility of technical scenarios, lost opportunities etc. can be examined. Interactions with macroeconomic I/O-models or dependencies on elasticities, technological learning etc. are possible. Recent calculations for Germany up to 2030 show that consistent and plausible future energy scenarios can be produced and analyzed. The authors work with energy system analysis at the research centre Jiilich, Gennany. Dr. Dag Martinsen (d.rnartinsen(ii)tz-iuelich.deJ and Volker Krey (v.krev«ldz-juelich.dej are physicists, Dr. Peter lvfarkewitz is a nlechanical engineer (p.markewitzC{))/z-juelich.deJ and Dr. Stefan Vogele is an economist (s. voegele(ji4z-iuelich.deJ.