Application of a Disaggregation Method for the Generation of Climate Changed Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Predicting Future Extreme Rainfall Impacts on Transportation Infrastructure

Abstract

Potential consequences of climate change are the increase in the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall storm events. In order to assess what are the potential impacts of climate change in the transportation infrastructure, new intensity-duration-frequency curves are needed. In this study, projected IDF curves were created based on three Global Climate Models (GCM) for the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. The selected GCMs are: ACCESS1-0, CSIRO-MK3-0-6 and GFDL-ESM2M. Projected IDFs for the near (2025-2049), mid (2050-2074) and far future (2075-2099) were created after disaggregating the project rainfall time series using the Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulses Stochastic Model. The projected IDFs were compared with the IDF currently used and generated based on historical data. The results indicate that climate change is likely to decrease rainfall intensities in all the future horizons in the tested area of San Antonio, Texas. Further analysis is recommended, including the use of bias correction of those GCM models and use of a broader range of models that can better quantify uncertainty of the future rainfall regime.