A multihazard assessment framework integrating single and coupled scenario analysis for droughts, floods, and landslides

Abstract

Multiple natural hazards, such as droughts, floods, and landslides, often interact in complex ways, amplifying overall hazards and posing significant challenges to accurate hazard assessment. This study introduces a comprehensive multihazard assessment framework that systematically integrates single-hazard and coupled-hazard scenarios to identify coupling mechanisms and quantify their effects on composite hazard levels. Historical records of natural hazards are analyzed using association rule mining combined with hazard coupling process analysis to determine eight representative scenarios: three single-hazards and five coupled-hazards encompassing alternation, triggering, and compound patterns. For each scenario, tailored hazard assessment formulas are developed to capture the magnitude of the coupling effects. Applying this framework to Hubei Province, China, reveals that overall multihazard levels are generally low, with high-, medium-, and low-level zones accounting for 26%, 34%, and 41%, respectively. High-level zones are concentrated in the western mountainous regions, where coupling impacts are most pronounced. Model evaluation (AUC = 0.889; accuracy = 0.92) and result characteristics confirm the reliability and scalability of the framework, offering robust support for targeted disaster prevention, early warning, and mitigation planning in regions vulnerable to drought, flood, and landslide interactions.