Identifying Key Risks to the Effectiveness of Water Use Authorization Systems through Theory of Change (ToC): The Case of South Africa

Abstract

South Africa is a water-stressed country with significant water management challenges. In response, progressive and advanced water management policy and legislation have been developed that include the regulation of water uses through a water use license application (WULA) system. In recent years, the effective functioning of the WULA system has come under increased scrutiny. However, a comprehensive systematic evaluation of the effectiveness of the WULA system has not yet been conducted. This paper aims to identify key risks to the effectiveness of the WULA system in South Africa through the application of a theory of change (ToC) methodology. Workshops with more than 60 participants were held with different stakeholder groups. Ultimately, a total of 21 key risks to the effectiveness of the WULA system were identified. The results suggest that various risks have already been realized and that the WULA system is not functioning as intended and is not achieving its outcomes. It is recommended that the identified key risks provide the basis for a comprehensive system evaluation to inform a more effective WULA system design.