Stochastic analysis of plant available water estimates and soil water balance components simulated by a hydrological model

Abstract

The uncertainty in soil hydraulic parameters is often not taken into account in process-based hydrological modeling. Performing runs with 104 stochastic parameter realizations, we evaluated the propagation of uncertainty in the Van Genuchten–Mualem (VGM) parameters into estimates of the threshold values of soil water content used to calculate the total and readily available water, and on the long-term (30 years) simulations of evaporation, transpiration, bottom flux, and runoff by the SWAP hydrological model. The simulated scenarios included weather data from a location in southeast Brazil and seven soils from the same region cropped with maize, comprising a wide range of texture classes. The results showed that uncertainties in VGM parameters affect the estimates of total and readily available water. Water balance components obtained by a deterministic simulation with average VGM parameters did not always agree with the average or median of stochastic simulations, and stochastic simulations including parameter uncertainties should be preferred. Variations in yearly rainfall characteristics were more important for bottom flux and evaporation, while transpiration and runoff were more strongly influenced by the variations in soil hydraulic properties.