Socio-ecological modeling of risk factors of urbanized territories' development

Abstract

The article deals with the problem of forming an effective approach to modeling of integral indicator of socio-ecological risk in elaboration of urbanized territories development scenarios. The main objective is to develop economic-mathematical model of socio-environmental risk assessment and justification of starting parameters for its realization. During the research, the authors studied in detail the existing approaches to the modeling of ecological and economic factors; considered the stages of interaction between man and nature characterizing the manifestation of risks; revealed the peculiarities of the concepts of "risk" and "damage"; defined the evaluation methodology and indicators of environmental sustainability. On the basis of existing approaches to modeling of economic growth with the social index, the criterion of population health and the indicators of the ecological state of the territory, the authors have developed the model of integral risk. In detailed review of the fundamentals of modeling: Forrester's methods of system dynamics (and subsequent works of D. Meadows) and Leontiev's "input-output" (and subsequent papers of D. Ford), is the necessity of employment of the risk index in socio-ecological models is proven, and the methods of the convolution of partial indices and the possibility of consideration of multiplicity of risk factors are substantiated. The main result of research is the scientific basis of usage of multiple choice models for construction of integral indicator of socio-ecological territory risk.