Trends and changes detection in rainfall, temperature and wind speed in Burundi

Abstract

This paper assessed the potential impacts of trends detected in rainfall, temperature and wind speed on hydro and wind power resources in Burundi. Two climatic stations located at two contrasting regions, namely Rwegura catchment and northern Imbo plain, were considered. Rainfall, temperature and wind speed observed data were considered for the period 1950–2014 and future projection data from seven Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for the period 2021–2050 were used. The interannual variability analysis was made using standardized variables. Trends and rupture were respectively detected through Mann–Kendall and Pettitt non-parametric tests. Mann–Whitney and Kolmogorov–Smirnov tests were considered as subseries comparison tests. The results showed a downward trend of rainfall while temperature and wind speed revealed upward trends for the period 1950–2014. All models projected increases in temperature and wind speed compared to the baseline period 1981–2010. Five models forecasted an increase in rainfall at northern Imbo plain station while four models projected a decrease in rainfall at Rwegura station. November was forecasted by the ensemble mean model to slightly increase in rainfall for both stations. Therefore, the country of Burundi may benefit more if it plans to invest in wind power.