Greenhouse Gas Reductions Driven by Vehicle Electrification across Powertrains, Classes, Locations, and Use Patterns

Abstract

We assess the cradle-to-grave greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of current (2025) light-duty vehicles (LDV) across powertrains, vehicle classes, and locations. We create driver archetypes (commuters, occasional long-distance travelers, contractors), simulate different use patterns (drive cycles, utility factors, cargo loads) and characterize GHG emissions using an attributional approach. Driven by grid decarbonization and improved electric vehicle efficiency, we are first to report electric vehicles have lower GHG emissions than gasoline vehicles in every county across the contiguous United States. On average, a 300-mile range battery electric vehicle (BEV) has emissions which are 31–36% lower than a 50-mile range plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV), 63–65% lower than a hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), and 71–73% lower than an internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV). Downsizing also reduces emissions, with a compact ICEV having 34% lower emissions than an ICEV pickup. We present the first evaluation of LDV emissions while hauling cargo, showing that carrying 2500 lbs. in a pickup increases BEV emissions by 13% (134 to 152 g CO2e/mile) compared to 22% (486 to 592 g CO2e/mile) for an ICEV. Emissions maps and vehicle powertrain/class matrices highlight the interplay between vehicle classes, powertrains, locations, and use patterns, and provide insights for consumers, manufacturers, and policymakers.