Tooling of modeling and strategic planning of energy-efficient development of the regional fuel and energy complex

Abstract

The article is devoted to the relevant problem of regional development - elaboration of methodical tooling and information technologies of macroeconomic modeling and strategic planning of energy-efficient development of the Russian Federation regions. The task of energy-efficient development is solved through the search of the agreed scenarios of development of the Fuel and Energy Complex (FEC) and economy of the region; the scenarios which help to achieve the maximum approach to the targets for the offered system of energy indicators. The authors developed a dynamic multisectoral model of the Fuel and Energy Complex, which reproduces interconnected production processes, processing, transportation and use of all types of fuel and energy resources in the region. The methodology of formation of the multiple regional fuel and energy balance (FEB) is offered. It allows predicting energy intensity and energy consumption of economy, including, energy consumption of GRP, estimating energy security and energy efficiency of economy, and revealing "narrow" places and threats in FEC development. The methods and algorithms allowing solving the problems of multi-purpose management of FEC for many tens of the purposes and hundreds of control variables are developed for estimation of achievability of the purposes of energy-efficient development of the Russian Federation regions. On the basis of the methods and models, presented in the article, information technologies of situational forecasting and strategic planning are realized in the form of predictive and analytical system, aimed at support of managerial decisions of regional authorities in the task of energy efficiency and energy security increase at the Russian Federation regions. The developed tooling was calibrated on the statistical material of the Samara region and was tested while solving practical tasks of strategic planning of energy-efficient development of the Russian Federation regions.