Subnational Identity, Regional Conflicts, and Public Opinion on Decentralization in Chile

Abstract

What factors shape preferences for subnational autonomy in contexts of limited, top-down decentralization? Drawing on Social Identity Theory, we argue that subnational identity can increase support for decentralization, particularly when individuals perceive greater regional conflict. Using data from the 2019 Regional Barometer and representative subsamples from nine Chilean regions, we examine attitudes toward three forms of decentralization: regional administrative, regional fiscal, and municipal autonomy. Results show that regional identity is heterogeneously associated with decentralization preferences, whereas perceived regional conflict is more consistently and positively associated with support for decentralization, especially in the fiscal dimension. Interaction effects vary by region and outcome: In most cases where the interaction is significant, with conflict perceptions widening the gap between respondents with and without regional identity, whereas in others the relationship is weaker or reversed. Overall, the findings suggest that territorial grievances and conflict perceptions—rather than identity alone—are central to public support for decentralization.