Avalanche Coming Now Close to the borders of unpredictability

Abstract

Earthquakes, evolution, avalanches - even something as simple as grains of sand tumbling down a pile: so many phenomena of nature seem to resist prediction. We still cannot tell when geological stresses will release themselves in a major quake or when the last extra grain of sand will make half the heap avalanche down. But have statisticians been looking in the wrong place? Or are these critical phenomena really inherently unpredictable? They are close to the borders, but still in predictable land, says Osvanny Ramos, one of the authors of an experiment to prove it. © 2009 The Royal Statistical Society.