A System Dynamics Approach to Resilience Analysis in the Sino-Russian Timber Supply Chain

Abstract

In the context of global timber supply chains facing policy adjustments, resource fluctuations, and market uncertainties, this study focuses on the resilience of the Sino-Russian timber supply chain. A system dynamics (SD) model is developed to analyze the dynamic evolution of the key segments. By integrating the entropy weight–TOPSIS method, the research quantitatively assesses overall supply chain resilience by synthesizing data from four capability dimensions—Russian logistics and transportation capability, Russian primary wood processing capability, Sino-Russian timber import–export capability, and Heilongjiang furniture sales capability—over the 2017–2033 period. Results indicate a “first decline, then rise” trajectory for resilience, with a minimum normalized resilience index of 0.1549 recorded in 2021, followed by a gradual recovery and sustained strengthening thereafter. Among evaluated segments, Russian logistics demonstrates the strongest short-term shock resistance (36.2% reduction in minimum resilience), while Heilongjiang’s sales segment exhibits optimal long-term recoverability (the normalized resilience index increased by an average of 0.0363 units per year during the recovery phase). Based on these findings, a “short-term logistics enhancement–long-term demand-driven” strategy is proposed to improve resilience, providing actionable insights for the high-quality development of the Sino-Russian timber supply chain.