Changing Business Cycles: The Role of Women’s Employment

Abstract

Women’s labor force participation in the United States rose rapidly until the mid-1990s when it flattened out. I examine the impact of this change in trend on aggregate business cycles with a quantitative model that incorporates gender differences. I show that the rise in women’s participation played a substantial role in the Great Moderation and not allowing for gender differences leads to incorrect inference on its causes. The subsequent slowdown in women’s participation played a substantial role in jobless recoveries and reduced aggregate hours and output growth in expansions, worsening aggregate economic performance in the United States. (JEL E13, E23, E24, E32, J16, J22)