Understanding local expert perceptions of climate security hotspots using participatory mapping

Abstract

The enactment of climate security actions in Kenya requires tools to support locally targeted climate-resilient interventions. This study developed a participatory mapping framework to integrate local expert perceptions of climate security (CS) hotspots—areas with overlapping socio-economic vulnerabilities, governance challenges, conflict and climate-sensitive livelihoods—in Laikipia, Isiolo, West Pokot, Samburu, Turkana, Garissa, Wajir, Marsabit, Mandera, Tana River and Lamu counties and initiate discussions towards locally led resilient climate security solutions. The framework involved five consensus-based Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) conducted in a three-day workshop using printed and interactive CS hotspot maps derived from spatial analysis of global climate and conflict data. Out of 80 sampled hotspots, 45% of the experts agreed with their classification, 38.75% agreed with either classification of climate conditions or conflict intensity while 16.25% disagreed with both categorisation of climate and conflict. Classification of conflict was more contested than climate. Experts also identified 19 additional CS hotspots, revealing gaps in global datasets and the importance of contextual knowledge. The study demonstrates that participatory mapping provides complementary insights that can augment top-down climate security assessments while exposing locally relevant adaptation strategies. These findings support CS actions within Kenya’s National Climate Change Action Plan emphasising the value of community-driven and spatially informed climate resilience approaches.