Uncertainty analysis on risk assessment of water inrush in karst tunnels

Abstract

An improved attribute recognition method is reviewed and discussed to evaluate the risk of water inrush in karst tunnels. Due to the complex geology and hydrogeology, the methodology discusses the uncertainties related to the evaluation index and attribute measure.Theuncertainties can be described by probability distributions.The values of evaluation index and attribute measure were employed through random numbers generated by Monte Carlo simulations and an attribute measure belt was chosen instead of the linearity attribute measure function. Considering the uncertainties of evaluation index and attribute measure, the probability distributions of four risk grades are calculated using random numbers generated by Monte Carlo simulation. According to the probability distribution, the risk level can be analyzed under different confidence coefficients. The method improvement is more accurate and feasible compared with the results derived from the attribute recognition model. Finally, the improved attribute recognition method was applied and verified in Longmenshan tunnel in China.