A perspective on the significance of pandemic influenza

Abstract

The identification in February 1976 of a new strain of influenza virus led to the enactment of unprecedented federal legislation to minimize the impact of a potential outbreak of pandemic influenza in the fall and winter of 1976-1977. This legislative program does not, however, represent a commitment of federal resources to deal with the more general, long-standing problem of epidemic influenza. This paper presents a series of estimates of the impact and economic consequences of influenza. By including periods of interpandemic as well as pandemic disease, the estimates offer a broadened perspective of the magnitude of the influenza problem. The estimates show that while the proportions of pandemic influenza can be singularly impressive, the cumulative effects of interpandemic outbreaks are generally of greater consequence. The paper discusses the implications of these estimates and the 1976 legislation for the support and implementation of federal policy on the use of influenza vaccine. While the commitment of resources in support of public policy cannot alone guarantee successful implementation, it must be considered an essential prerequisite for dealing with both interpandemic and pandemic influenza.