Analysis of Climate Change Effects on Seawall Reliability

Abstract

Crown heights of seawalls should be designed to suppress overtopping discharge to a permissible level. The permissible level is determined from viewpoints of the structure types of coastal seawalls and hinterland use. It is usually difficult to design the crown heights of seawalls, especially in the present time where climate change due to global warming is expected. This study analyzes climate change effects such as sea level rise (SLR) and increase of waves and surges on the failure probability of seawalls under various conditions of crown height, toe depth and slope by using a Level III reliability analysis. It was found that the difference of SLR trends (fast, medium or low) has less impact on overtopping rates than the differences in wave height change for a seawall at a target location.