Nordic net-zero: counterbalancing residual emissions in the context of unevenly distributed BECCS potentials

Abstract

Attaining net-zero emissions globally requires counterbalancing residual emissions with carbon dioxide removal (CDR), such as bio-energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). BECCS potential is unevenly distributed, meaning that regions may have a ‘surplus’ or ‘deficit’ potential relative to the regional need for counterbalancing. Market mechanisms can be used to transfer BECCS outcomes from one region with surplus BECCS potential to another with deficit potential. We analyse the potential for such trade within the Nordic countries. We show that Sweden has a significant theoretical surplus BECCS potential of at least 19 MtCO2/year compared to what is needed to achieve its net-zero target, which could be realized and transferred to other countries based on e.g. Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. Within the Nordics, Denmark and Iceland could be possible buyers of such outcomes due to their relatively low BECCS potential compared to the prospective need for CDR to achieve long-term climate targets. Norway also has a small BECCS potential, but it likely suffices to reach its ‘low emission society’ target. Finland has a large BECCS potential but will likely need any domestic BECCS towards its net-zero target due to unforeseen changes in forest sinks. The residual emissions in need of counterbalancing estimated in this paper, and, thus, the potential for collaboration for BECCS outcomes, is subject to uncertainty due to vaguely formulated mitigation targets. We recommend that policy makers (i) adopt separate quantified targets for emission reductions and counterbalancing measures, (ii) evaluate whether there is a surplus or deficit domestic CDR potential to reach the targets, and (iii) seek collaborations with other countries as sellers or buyers of CDR, to facilitate net-zero.