Uncertainty in Breast Cancer Risk Prediction: A Conformal Prediction Study of Race Stratification

Abstract

The use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in medicine has attracted a great deal of attention in the medical literature, but less is known about how to assess the uncertainty of individual predictions in clinical applications. This paper demonstrates the use of Conformal Prediction (CP) to provide insight on racial stratification of uncertainty quantification for breast cancer risk prediction. The results presented here show that CP methods provide important information about the diminished quality of predictions for individuals of minority racial backgrounds.