Dependency structure and volatility connectedness among China-ASEAN stock market, cryptocurrencies, and crude oil

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to assess the dependence structure and volatility connectedness among the COVID-19 crisis, the 2022 Russia–Ukraine war, and their influence on cryptocurrencies, crude oil, developed markets, and the equity markets of China and ASEAN countries under varying market conditions. The analysis segmented the sample into three distinct periods: pre-COVID-19, during COVID-19, and the 2022 Russia–Ukraine conflict. To assess the dependence structure and risk spillover patterns across the markets for each period, we employed the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH)-extreme value theory (EVT)-vine copula and quantile vector autoregression (QVAR) connectedness methodologies. Findings from our GARCH-EVT-Vine-Copula model indicated that subsequent to the outbreak of COVID-19, market portfolios associated with the MSCI-developed markets index demonstrated significantly lower tail connectedness. However, the impact of the 2022 Russia–Ukraine war on the stock markets of China and ASEAN countries was found to be overestimated. Furthermore, the QVAR connectedness analysis revealed that connectedness was greater in bullish market conditions than in normal and extreme downside periods. Additionally, the portfolio analysis results suggested that the equity markets of China and ASEAN countries, along with the crude oil markets, cryptocurrency indices, and the MSCI developed markets index, were unable to achieve high levels of hedging effectiveness. Concurrently, it was recommended that investments be directed toward Chinese and ASEAN equities as safe-haven assets.