ANALISIS RISIKO PROYEK JARINGAN TRANSMISI DENGAN METODE DECISION TREE DAN EXPECTED MONETARY VALUE

Abstract

The imbalance between electricity demand and supply in Indonesia necessitates strategic evaluation and action. In response to this issue, the government of the Republic of Indonesia, through the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, has designated the construction of the Sumatra 500 kV transmission network as a National Strategic Project (NSP) to support the growth of communities in Sumatra. This project, particularly Package 3 undertaken by PT XYZ, poses significant risks for the company as the contractor. Research is conducted through qualitative analysis using a consequences-probability matrix to identify risks, and quantitative analysis with decision tree method andexpected monetary value (EMV) to determine the risk values. From the study involving 30 respondents and 54 risk variables across 7 categories, four high-risk variables, 46 moderate-risk variables, and four low-risk variables are identified. The most dominant and impactful risk category for the project is finance and economics. The four variables with the most substantial impact are: 1) Slow land acquisition and compensation processes; 2) Project funding delays due to the owner's late advance payments/terms; 3) Theft/loss of tower structure and stringing materials; 4) Unavailability of access for materials and equipment to the location. The total cost that needs to be allocated for these four risks to be handled is Rp 88.532.244.788.