Scientific Support of Occupational Risk Management Decisions in Industrial Sectors in Case of Uncertainty

Abstract

Introduction: The lack of generally accepted techniques (methods, algorithms) that can be used to quantify the risk of injury in the workplace today necessitates appropriate theoretical and experimental studies. Since labor protection manage-ment is carried out by planning and implementing preventive measures, a scien-tific justification for the priority of these measures is required. Methods: In this study, theoretical methods were used, namely: analysis of mod-ern methods for occupational risk assessing and labor protection managing; syn-thesis to improve the decision-making algorithm that ensures effective manage-ment of labor protection at enterprises; expert evaluation of the weighting coeffi-cients of potential hazards and questioning of employees; mathematical model-ing and the modified Elmery method were applied for practical testing of theo-retical results. Results: An occupational risk management algorithm has been developed to sub-stantiate management decisions on planning measures to reduce risk, the imple-mentation of which ensures the effectiveness of measures aimed at reducing risk. If the decision-making situation is characterized by conditions of uncertainty (it is impossible to obtain mathematical models of acceptable accuracy), the assess-ment of the predictive values of occupational risk is carried out exclusively by an expert. Practical testing of the algorithm shows that the deviation of the values of expert estimates from the results of measurements by an automated control sys-tem and portable equipment ranges from 2 to 6%. Therefore, for a quick calcula-tion of risks, it is advisable to use the expert method, as the most economical and fairly accurate. Conclusion: It has been established that in conditions of uncertainty (lack of nec-essary data or available data are incomplete or unreliable), experts involved in solving the problem of risk management use their knowledge and experience in solving similar problems. As a promising direction for further research, it should be noted the development of a methodology for a comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness of operational management decisions for planning and imple-menting measures to reduce risks.