The Supply and Use Framework Can Be Exploited for Comparing Technologies Serving Similar Needs: The Case of the Italian Heavy-Duty Road Sector

Abstract

In Italy, the transport sector contributes significantly to carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, accounting for 30.7% of the total emissions, with road freight transport alone responsible for 25% of this figure. This situation demands urgent emissions reductions to meet the country’s national commitment to achieving net-zero by mid-century. The growing affordability of electric vehicles (EVs) due to improved energy densities and reduced lithium storage system costs is extending to heavy transport, promising emissions reductions. Additionally, short-term alternatives like hydrogen and liquefied natural gas (LNG) are being considered. To evaluate the carbon footprint of emerging transportation technologies, including internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), LNG vehicles, and battery electric vehicles (BEVs), a detailed life cycle analysis (LCA) is essential. This research aims to inform decision-making processes, investment initiatives, and regulatory compliance by assessing emissions per kilometer within future scenarios. The study employs an LCA model integrating global supply chain contributions, offering regional context and scenario analysis. Findings indicate higher GHG emissions per kilometer for FCEVs and diesel vehicles, with BEVs emerging as promising alternatives. Moreover, the study highlights significant Scope 3 emissions associated with FCEV supply chains, emphasizing the broader environmental impacts of different vehicle types.