Three-dimensional source tracking in an uncertain environment via Bayesian marginalization

Abstract

This paper develops a non-linear Bayesian marginalization approach for three-dimensional source tracking in shallow water with uncertain environmental properties. The algorithm integrates the posterior probability density via a combination of Metropolis-Hastings sampling over environmental and bearing model parameters and Gibbs sampling over source range/depth, with track constraints on source velocity applied. Marginal distributions for source range/depth and source bearing are derived, with source position uncertainties estimated from the distributions. The Viterbi algorithm is applied to obtain the most probable three-dimensional track. The approach is applied to experimental narrowband data recorded on a bottom-moored horizontal line array in the Barents Sea.