Evaluation and spatio-temporal analysis of surface energy flux in permafrost regions over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and Arctic using CMIP6 models

Abstract

The surface energy budget over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) and the Arctic significantly influences the climate system with global consequences. The performances of 30 selected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models were evaluated based on six sites in the QTP and Arctic. The simulation results for latent heat flux (LE) were more accurate in the QTP, where the correlation coefficient and root mean square error (RMSE) were 0.9 and 30 W m−2, respectively. The results for sensible heat flux (H) were more accurate in the Arctic, the correlation coefficient and RMSE were 0.8 and 24 W m−2, respectively. Furthermore, the multiple models mean results revealed that the surface energy flux had seasonal variation and regional differences over the QTP and the Arctic. In the QTP, H was the lowest in winter, increased in spring, and reached the maximum in summer. However, the transitional changes in spring and autumn were not apparent in the Arctic, mainly due to seasonal net radiation difference between the two places. LE was affected by precipitation and surface soil moisture content. This work is important for understanding land-atmosphere interactions and useful for improving the accuracy of land surface models simulations.