Production Planning Forecasting using Single Moving Average and Exponential Smoothing Method in PT. Semen Indonesia

Abstract

PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) is a prominent state-owned cement producer in Indonesia. As a leading company, PT Semen Indonesia needs to keep improving its activity strategies, starting from the production planning. Therefore, this research discusses the appropriate production forecasting method. The production data is collected in an annual period which is collected from PT Semen Indonesia operational overview in the annual report. Steps of PT Semen Indonesia production planning forecasting are literature study, data collecting, identification of forecasting methods, comparison of forecasting methods, and result analysis. Based on the data characteristics, Single Moving Average and Exponential Smoothing Method were chosen to predict the production in the year 2021. The accuracy level of the method was measured by using MAD, MSD, and MAPE with Single Exponential Smoothing as the best production planning forecasting result.