A novel 2-deoxy-2-fluorodeoxyglucose (18F-FDG) positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT)-based nomogram to predict lymph node metastasis in early stage uterine cervical squamous cell cancer

Abstract

Background: We aimed to establish an effective 2-deoxy-2-fluorodeoxyglucose (18F-FDG) positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) based nomogram for pelvic lymph node (PLN) metastasis prediction in early-stage uterine cervical squamous cell cancer. Methods: A predictive model was developed in a cohort that consisted of 351 patients with stage IB-IIA [International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) 2009] uterine cervical squamous cell cancer. All patients underwent a preoperative PET/CT scan and subsequent radical surgery between 2010 and 2017, with 241 and 110 patients allotted into training and external validation cohorts. The chi-square (χ2) test and the logistic regression analysis were used to compare the clinical and PET/CT parameters with PLN metastasis. A nomogram was developed and validated by internal and external validation. Results: In the training cohort, 82 (34.0%) patients had positive PLNs identified in the preoperative PET/ CT scan. Among them, 46 (56.1%) were pathologically confirmed. There were 30 (18.9%) PET/CT scan-negative patients found to have PLN metastasis. The χ2 test and logistic regression showed that only the squamous cell carcinoma antigen (SCCA) level (P=0.039) and maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax) of PLN (nSUVmax, P=0.001) were independent predictors for PLN metastasis. A predictive nomogram based on these 2 parameters was developed with a C-index [95% confidence interval (CI)] of 0.854 (0.772-0.937) on internal validation and 0.836 (0.723-0.948) on the external validation. Compared to nSUVmax alone, our nomogram showed elevated sensitivity (70.5%, 73.1% vs. 60.5%), specificity (94.4%, 86.4% vs. 78.2%), and positive predictive value (PPV) (93.9%, 86.4% vs. 56.1%) in both the training and validation cohorts. Conclusions: We successfully developed a noninvasive and convenient nomogram for preoperative identification of PLN metastasis in early-stage squamous cell cervical cancer.